Meet Emission Reduction Targets Research Articles

Greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in Ireland

Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs) pose a significant challenge in meeting emissions reduction targets. However, studies on estimating emissions from Irish HDV fleet are rare. This paper estimates fuel consumption and CO2 emissions from tractor-trailers that occupy nearly half of Ireland’s HDV fleet using the European Commission recommended VECTO tool. To improve the estimation accuracy, driving cycles specific to Irish road conditions were developed utilising real naturalistic driving data from trucks. The Irish driving cycles significantly differ from the VECTO inbuilt driving cycles in percentage time spent in different gears, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions estimated with Irish driving cycles range from 733 to 1961 g/km, while with VECTO driving cycles, the values ranged from 728 to 1865 g/km. Further, the study evaluated the sensitivity towards payload, road gradient, and idling percentages. The study insights would provide an essential evidence base for policymakers in Ireland.

The landscape of heat pump adoption in Canada: a market segments approach

Heat pumps are an important technology for reducing residential building emissions, however their adoption rate in North America is far below what is needed to meet emission reduction targets. This paper uses a representative web-based survey of Canadian homeowners (n = 3,804) to identify and describe characteristic and attitudinal trends of three market segments of Canadian homeowners: Pioneers (heat pump owners), Potential Early Mainstream buyers (homeowners currently willing to purchase a heat pump), and Late Mainstream buyers (homeowners currently unwilling to purchase a heat pump). We find that personal capability, contextual and attitudinal factors are significant determinants of market segments. For example, being younger, more educated and wealthier is positively associated with market segmentation in Canada. A novel finding is that voting and living in rural areas is strongly associated with willingness to install a heat pump. The Atlantic Provinces, Quebec and British Columbia are all more likely than Ontario and Alberta to adopt heat pumps while the Prairies are less likely. This is true even after controlling for personal capability, contextual and attitudinal variables. We find an important role for contextual variables in explaining the geographical distribution of heat pump market segments.

Thermoeconomic Modeling as a Tool for Internalizing Carbon Credits into Multiproduct System Analysis

In the context of emissions, carbon dioxide constitutes a predominant portion of greenhouse gases (GHGs), leading to the use of the term “carbon” interchangeably with these gases in climate-related discussions. The carbon market has emerged as a pivotal mechanism for emission regulation, allowing industries that struggle to meet emission reduction targets to acquire credits from those who have successfully curbed their emissions below stipulated levels. Thermoeconomics serves as a tool for analyzing multiproduct systems prevalent in diverse sectors, including sugarcane and alcohol mills, paper and pulp industries, steel mills, and cogeneration plants. These systems necessitate frameworks for equitable cost/emission allocation. This study is motivated by the need to expand the scope of thermoeconomic modeling to encompass expenses or revenues linked with the carbon market. By utilizing a cogeneration system as a representative case, this research aims to demonstrate how such modeling can facilitate the allocation of carbon market costs to final products. Moreover, it underscores the adaptability of this approach for internalizing other pertinent costs, encompassing expenses associated with environmental control devices, licenses, and permits. Although certain exergy disaggregation models depict an environmental component within diagrams, which is integral for addressing environmental burdens, even models without explicit environmental devices can effectively internalize carbon credits and allocate them to final products. The integration of carbon credits within thermoeconomic modeling introduces the capability to assess both the financial and environmental implications of emissions. This integration further incentivizes the reduction in GHGs and supports optimization endeavors concerning system design and operation. In summary, this study delves into the incorporation of carbon market dynamics into thermoeconomic modeling. It demonstrates the potential to allocate carbon-related costs, facilitates comprehensive cost analysis, encourages emission reduction, and provides a platform for enhancing system efficiency across industrial sectors.

Monitoring carbon emissions using deep learning and statistical process control: a strategy for impact assessment of governments’ carbon reduction policies

Across the globe, governments are developing policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions to address climate change. Monitoring the impact of governments’ carbon reduction policies can significantly enhance our ability to combat climate change and meet emissions reduction targets. One promising area in this regard is the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in carbon reduction policy and strategy monitoring. While researchers have explored applications of AI on data from various sources, including sensors, satellites, and social media, to identify areas for carbon emissions reduction, AI applications in tracking the effect of governments’ carbon reduction plans have been limited. This study presents an AI framework based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and statistical process control (SPC) for the monitoring of variations in carbon emissions, using UK annual CO2 emission (per capita) data, covering a period between 1750 and 2021. This paper used LSTM to develop a surrogate model for the UK’s carbon emissions characteristics and behaviours. As observed in our experiments, LSTM has better predictive abilities than ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and feedforward artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting CO2 emissions on a yearly prediction horizon. Using the deviation of the recorded emission data from the surrogate process, the variations and trends in these behaviours are then analysed using SPC, specifically Shewhart individual/moving range control charts. The result shows several assignable variations between the mid-1990s and 2021, which correlate with some notable UK government commitments to lower carbon emissions within this period. The framework presented in this paper can help identify periods of significant deviations from a country’s normal CO2 emissions, which can potentially result from the government’s carbon reduction policies or activities that can alter the amount of CO2 emissions.

(Invited) SOEC Upscale; Material Challenges

To ensure the transition of the global energy system to a sustainable one, and to meet emission reduction targets of national climate policies we need in future to produce large amounts of “green” hydrogen. This will be necessary to sustain the world’s need for synthesis of “green” ammonia, “green” methanol and “green” jet fuels, but also for use in form of hydrogen as a transportation fuel and a reduction agent in steel making. Various electrolysis technologies for providing this hydrogen via an electrochemical splitting of water/steam are likely to become the backbone of this emerging sector.Among the different electrolysis technologies, available or under development, SOEC stands out with distinct advantages related to the high temperature of operation, most markedly; 1) there is no need for precious metals in the electrodes, and 2) the achievable efficiency is higher than for the other electrolysis technologies. The electrical efficiency may exceed 90 % as the technology can be run thermo-neutrally producing no waste heat, or may even utilize waste heat if such exist for instance from a down-stream upgrading of the hydrogen to methanol or ammonia.In view of these very significant advantages, SOEC is likely to become a key enabling technology for the above described transition. However, the SOEC technology is less mature than alkaline electrolysis and PEM-based electrolysis and is today deployed much less than the other two technologies. The largest SOEC units manufactured/operated today are in the range of ~1 MW. However, numerous scale up projects have recently been announced and the industrial stakeholders are these years investing massively to bring up production capacity and module sizes.In this paper we shall discuss some of the challenges in upscaling SOEC and some of the materials issues to be addressed, when considering large scale global deployment over the next decades.The inherent brittle nature of the ceramics used in the cells has so far limited the size of the cells of most stakeholders to be in the range with side-lengths from 10 to 15 cm. Ideally, in terms of upscaling module sizes, this should be much larger. This however requires great care in the manufacturing, and a tough and strong backbone material in the cell. Most stakeholders rely on stabilized zirconia to provide the structural support. Use of zirconia in the transformable (metastable) tetragonal version with 2 – 4 % Y2O3 substitution holds some advantages over the use of the fully stabilized cubic version with ~8 % Y2O3, as the former has much higher strength/toughness. We shall present our recent results on optimizing composition and processing routes to maximize toughness and strength, whilst preventing unintended spontaneous transformation to the monoclinic phase during use, and shall discuss the consequences in terms of upscaling cell foot-print.In SOEC one does not need any precious metals (PGM-materials). However, typically the state of the art cells relies on use of several critical raw materials. Several rare earth materials (HREE/LREE) are used (Ce, Gd, Y, La) and also some critical transition metals like Co/Mn and Ni. Ni is by EU not considered critical, but is on the list of strategic materials. For large-scale deployment, it is obviously an advantage if the use of Critical Raw Materials (CRM) can be minimized.Introducing performance improvement in terms of increased production capacity per m2 of cell or kg of material is a straightforward strategy to reduce the CRM-use of the technology and is likely a part of the strategy among all stakeholders. Endeavors to reduce the use of one particular material are also meaningful in such a materials resource perspective.We shall here present recent results on activities to increase the competitiveness of the SOEC technology by introducing a metal-support as the structural backbone and replace the Ni/YSZ-fuel electrode with one based on a mixed conducting Ti-based oxide (Ni and Fe-doped (La,Sr)TiO3). Recently, we have found that such a material combination can in fact sustain SOEC operation for extended periods (tested over 5000 hr) at technologically relevant hydrogen production rates corresponding to current densities of 0.5 A/cm2. The results shall be presented and the possibilities to improve the titanate backbone further by compositional changes shall be discussed with special view to eliminating use of HREE/LREE and critical raw materials in general.Finally, we shall present some recent results on how to eliminate the use of Co in the oxygen electrode. The achieved results shall be compared with other approaches adopted in literature on how to eliminate use of Co and even La in the oxygen electrode.

Recent Advancements in High-Temperature Solar Particle Receivers for Industrial Decarbonization

Concentrated solar thermal (CST) systems are pivotal in the pursuit of renewable energy solutions to meet emissions reduction targets. They play a vital role in addressing the negative impacts of energy-intensive industrial processes, such as the high-temperature calcination step in the alumina Bayer process, requiring temperatures of approximately 1000 °C. However, achieving such high temperatures poses challenges, as radiative losses increase significantly with temperature. Current commercially available CST technologies, employing heat transfer mediums like molten salts, are constrained to temperatures below 600 °C. The emerging focus on sand-like ceramic particles, either as standalone materials or in suspension within an air stream, as heat transfer mediums signifies a promising avenue in the development of high-temperature receiver-based CST technologies. These particle-laden suspension flow receiver systems have the potential to reach operating temperatures exceeding 1000 °C. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of CST technologies, with a primary focus on high-temperature particle receivers. It sheds light on the existing challenges within the CST state-of-the-art technologies and introduces the concept of refractory-lined particle receivers. This paper also underscores the significance of transient-based thermal analysis for high-temperature particle receivers and highlights the necessity of such analyses to guide their practical implementation. By addressing these critical aspects, this review paper contributes to the advancement of CST technologies, emphasizing their role in achieving sustainable, high-temperature heat for emission reduction objectives.

Grasp the nettle or retreat: Dynamic effects decomposition of carbon trading policies from a spatial perspective

Under the emission reduction pressure of carbon trading policies (CTP), green innovation (GI) and pollution transfer (PT) are both viable options for meeting emission reduction targets. However, the current research has not systematically considered whether GI and PT coexist or whether there are differences in long-term and short-term dynamic decision making. It is crucial to investigate the dynamic effect of CTP on GI and PT. Taking China's CTP as the quasi-natural experiment, and based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019, this study evaluated decomposed the dynamic effects of CTP on GI and PT using a dynamic spatial difference-in-differences (DSDID) model. The results indicate that, (1) after the CTP promulgation, regional GI increased significantly, accompanied by a more obvious improvement in GI level in pilot areas than in non-pilot areas. The PT in the adjacent areas grew faster than PT in the pilot areas. (2) The CTP had significant long-term direct incentive and spatial spillover effects on GI, but also led to a short-term PT under the “pollution haven effect”. After a series of robustness tests, the dynamic effects were still significant. (3) The “competition for innovation (IC)” significantly enhanced the CTP incentive effect on GI under a siphoning effect, and the “competition for economic (EC)” intensified the PT effect caused by CTP because of collective irrational behavior. (4) In the strong GI capacity areas, the incentive effect of CTP on GI was higher than that in weak GI capacity areas, and the effect on PT was more significant. The mixed quota form driving effect on GI was greater than the free quota form, the free quota form had no significant PT effect on neighboring areas, while the mixed quota form led to a greater PT effect. Based on these findings, further put forward to improve the national carbon trading mechanism and market standards; construct a long-term GI incentive mechanism; account for the differences in local policies and regional joint actions on emissions reductions; construct a local government assessment and supervision mechanisms, which provides policy basis for promoting the “dual carbon” goal.

The power of wind: The global wind energy industry's successes and failures

The global shift to renewable energy is imperative for preventing catastrophic climate change, and wind energy is playing a leading role in meeting emissions reduction targets under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Wind is one of the fastest growing, most competitive, and least harmful of the renewable energy technologies. Using an Original Institutional Economics (OIE) approach to examine real world developments, we argue that the global wind energy industry is increasingly volatile and concentrated, with implications for future growth and the trajectory for decarbonization. Moreover, OIE recognizes markets as social constructions that hold specific values, from which we argue that wind energy is operating within “first generation” electricity markets that favour conventional energy. This could further undermine the necessary investment and continued growth of wind energy, while continuing to overlook other positive social benefits wind provides. Like ecological economics, OIE remains sceptical that markets can fully capture the value of wind energy even if they internalise these costs. This has significant implications for the future trajectory of wind energy compared with both traditional and new energy technologies and underscores the limits of market mechanisms for a sustainable energy transition.

Sustainable development in agriculture with a focus on decarbonization

This article examines sustainable agriculture's core objective: reducing environmental impact while ensuring continuity in food production. It distinguishes agroecology from sustainable agriculture and organic food production. The feasibility of sustainable organic food production in controlled settings is explored, especially for animal farming. The paper underscores agriculture's substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the pressing need for action. It discusses the intricate relationship between agriculture and climate change, emphasizing the challenges in meeting emission reduction targets within the sector. In this article, Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) is explored as a viable method to reduce agricultural emissions. Additionally, EU policies such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), are designed to align agriculture with climate objectives. Integrating agriculture into CBAM presents challenges due to the absence of a carbon pricing mechanism. EU's policies and EU's CBAM in this paper are given just a good decarbonization model that can be implemented worldwide. Balancing environmental preservation, economic stability, and international relations is complex in agriculture, as a significant emitter of GHGs. Innovative strategies like Agricultural Sector Management and Carbon Absorption offer promise in reducing agricultural emissions. This study employs a triangulation approach and contributes significantly to the field of sustainable agriculture. It explores various aspects of sustainable agriculture, tackles challenges related to climate change, and presents decarbonization strategies. These findings have relevance for all who are involved in agriculture and environmental sustainability.

Assessment of the feasibility of applying payment for forest ecosystem services in Vietnamese mangrove forests

Mangroves can play a major role in efforts to mitigate climate change through two pathways. These are (1) carbon sequestration following reforestation of areas where mangroves previously existed, and (2) protection of existing carbon stores in intact mangrove forests. There is considerable international interest in carbon mitigation by governments and businesses as a way of meeting emissions reduction targets, and this could result in significant investment in mangrove restoration and protection. This is likely to have positive benefits in terms of coastal protection, biodiversity protection and new economic activity. This project examined three aspects of mangroves related to the emerging carbon economy. There has been considerable (0.2 million hectares) mangrove restoration in Vietnam and this activity provides insights into the causes of project success or failure. A review of this restoration concluded that the failure of several past restoration projects in Vietnam could be attributed to poor species and site selection and lack of incentives to engage residents in long-term management. The economic, environmental and social aspects of mangrove-shrimp farming or aquaculture (MAS) systems in Ca Mau Province, Vietnam, were examined, and it was concluded that this approach allows the achievement of these multiple objectives. Whereas, most of the discussion around mangroves and their role in carbon management is at the international and national levels, implementation occurs at the local level. It was found that whereas local stakeholders had a reasonable understanding of climate change, they were less clear about carbon markets and the role that mangroves can play. This points to the need for new educational programmes. The study concluded that monitoring and verification systems for both carbon and biodiversity are essential to allow the resultant multiple benefits of carbon mitigation projects to be realised.

Electrification of residential heating, cooling and hot water: Load smoothing using onsite photovoltaics, heat pump and thermal batteries

Due to the pressing timeframe to meet emissions reduction targets, electrification of heat is the fastest approach for decarbonising buildings. However, the high power demand of electric heating and cooling devices poses a significant challenge to the electricity supply chain when they are deployed on mass. Adding rooftop solar photovoltaic systems does not necessarily eliminate this problem. Cheap and safe thermal storage offers a potentially viable solution allowing electric HVAC & hot water systems to be deployed with minimal impact on the grid. We propose such a multi-function thermal system combining solar photovoltaics, heat pump, and thermal storage for supplying residential heating, cooling and hot water demand. We investigate the effectiveness of this system in terms of electricity demand management and solar utilisation in different geographical locations. The results illustrate that with effective control, such a system can reduce a building’s annual grid-electricity demand by about 50% to 80%, and increase its solar self-consumption to around 60%. The temporal load profile is also significantly reduced and flattened, allowing high level of distributed PV penetration without negative impacts on the grid. We show that these benefits can be earned at a reasonable cost to consumers helping them to reap a positive rate of return compared to alternative options for different climatic and regional conditions. The proposed thermal storage system is demonstrated as a cost-effective and safe distributed energy solution to ease the stress exerted on the grid from excess PV power as well as heating and cooling related peak demand.

Modelling spatiotemporal carbon dioxide emission at the urban scale based on DMSP-OLS and NPP-VIIRS data: A case study in China

Carbon emissions from urban areas are pivotal in meeting emission reduction targets. While carbon emissions in the coastal areas of urban China have been clarified, those for central cities in the west remain limited, despite rapid economic development likely raising them. Here, we developed a model to estimate carbon emissions from land under construction in urban areas of Chengdu, China, using remote sensing data and carbon emission statistics. The spatial distribution of carbon emissions was quantified from spatial analyses using a geographic information system (GIS). The feasibility of the proposed model for estimating urban carbon emissions was supported by the high R2 for estimated and statistical carbon emissions (>0.87) and the F-test (F-statistic >112.59). During 2000–2015, carbon emissions from construction land increased substantially (by 19.09 Mg C), with emissions increasing from core cities and beyond. Carbon emissions clearly differed among construction areas in Chengdu's districts, adjacent counties, and outer counties. The results of this study could help guide the development of policies and plans for managing carbon emissions, emission density, and urban sustainability.

Heavy Multi-Articulated Vehicles with Electric and Hybrid Power Trains for Road Freight Activity: An Australian Context

The electrification of vehicles from the automotive and public transport industries can reduce harmful emissions if implemented correctly, but there is little evidence of whether the electrification of heavy freight transportation vehicles (HFTVs), such as multi-articulated vehicles, used in the freight industry could see the same benefits. This work studied heavy multi-articulated freight vehicles and developed a comparative analysis between electric and conventional diesel power trains to reduce their total emissions. Real-world drive cycle data were obtained from a heavy multi-articulated freight vehicle operating around Melbourne, Australia, with a gross combination mass (GCM) of up to 66,000 kg. Numerical models of the case study freight vehicle were then simulated with diesel, through-the-road parallel (TTRP) hybrid and electric power trains over the five different drive cycles with fuel and energy consumption results quantified. Battery weights were added on top of the real-world operating GCMs to assure the operational payload did not have to be reduced to accommodate the addition of electric power trains. The fuel and energy consumptions were then used to estimate the real-world emissions and compared. The results showed a positive reduction in tailpipe emissions, but total greenhouse emission was worse for operation in Melbourne if batteries were charged off the grid. However, if Melbourne can move towards more renewable energy and change its emission factor for generating electricity down to 0.49 kg CO2-e/kWh, a strong decarbonization could be possible for the Australian road freight industry and could help meet emission reduction targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Designing electric vehicle incentives to meet emission reduction targets

Electric vehicles are expected to reduce transportation emissions. We design and allocate rebates and charging infrastructure investments to induce electric vehicle adoption and achieve emission reduction targets. A nonlinear mixed-integer mathematical model is proposed to optimize the investment allocation over a planning horizon. Logistic functions describe the vehicle demand driven by capital and ownership costs and network externalities. A simulated annealing algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear programming problem that is applied using data representative of the United States market. Our analysis indicates that rebates should be provided earlier than chargers due to neighborhood effects of electric vehicle adoption and the minimization of expenditure; availability of home charging influences consumers choice and the drivers electrified travel distance; rebates are more effective for modest drivers while charging stations should be prioritized for frequent drivers; network externalities should be further investigated because of their impact on electric vehicle demand.

Prediction of global marginal land resources for Pistacia chinensis Bunge by a machine learning method

Biofuel has attracted worldwide attention due to its potential to combat climate change and meet emission reduction targets. Pistacia chinensis Bunge (P. chinensis) is a prospective plant for producing biodiesel. Estimating the global potential marginal land resources for cultivating this species would be conducive to exploiting bioenergy yielded from it. In this study, we applied a machine learning method, boosted regression tree, to estimate the suitable marginal land for growing P. chinensis worldwide. The result indicated that most of the qualified marginal land is found in Southern Africa, the southern part of North America, the western part of South America, Southeast Asia, Southern Europe, and eastern and southwest coasts of Oceania, for a grand total of 1311.85 million hectares. Besides, we evaluated the relative importance of the environmental variables, revealing the major environmental factors that determine the suitability for growing P. chinensis, which include mean annual water vapor pressure, mean annual temperature, mean solar radiation, and annual cumulative precipitation. The potential global distribution of P. chinensis could provide a valuable basis to guide the formulation of P. chinensis-based biodiesel policies.

Modeling the Combined Effect of Salt Precipitation and Fines Migration on CO2 Injectivity Changes in Sandstone Formation

Carbon dioxide, CO2 emissions have risen precipitously over the last century, wreaking havoc on the atmosphere. Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) techniques are being used to inject as much CO2 as possible and meet emission reduction targets with the fewest number of wells possible for economic reasons. However, CO2 injectivity is being reduced in sandstone formations due to significant CO2-brine-rock interactions in the form of salt precipitation and fines migration. The purpose of this project is to develop a regression model using linear regression and neural networks to correlate the combined effect of fines migration and salt precipitation on CO2 injectivity as a function of injection flow rates, brine salinities, particle sizes, and particle concentrations. Statistical analysis demonstrates that the neural network model has a reliable fit of 0.9882 in R Square and could be used to accurately predict the permeability changes expected during CO2 injection in sandstones.

Canadian Oil Sands Extraction and Upgrading: A Synthesis of the Data on Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Supply Costs

As Canadian crude bitumen production from oil sands has increased in recent decades, the nation’s oil and gas industry has become a significant contributor to national greenhouse gas emissions. Canada has developed carbon emission reduction targets to meet its Nationally Determined Contributions and Mid-Century Strategy goals. A detailed profile of energy consumption pathways in the oil sands industry is necessary to identify potential areas of improvement and to monitor progress toward meeting emissions reduction targets. Much of the existing literature for oil sands modeling provides input assumptions with different technological boundaries. For a set of oil sands extraction and upgrading technologies, this study first reviews the literature and then quantifies energy input requirements, CO2 emissions, and operating costs for a set of consistent technological boundaries and energy units. Summary results refer to requirements and costs at the production facility, excluding transportation and blending costs. An energy system diagram of oil sands production that matches these boundaries is provided, which can be used by integrated assessment models, oil sands companies, and government ministries to evaluate the present and future energy consumption and emissions pathways of the oil sands industry.

Assessment of Carbon Stock in Forest Biomass and Emission Reduction Potential in Malaysia

Malaysia has a large extent of forest cover that plays a crucial role in storing biomass carbon and enhancing carbon sink (carbon sequestration) and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions, which helps to reduce the negative impacts of global climate change. This article estimates the economic value of forest carbon stock and carbon value per hectare of forested area based on the price of removing per ton CO2eq in USD from 1990 to 2050. The economic value of biomass carbon stored in the forests is estimated at nearly USD 51 billion in 2020 and approximately USD 41 billion in 2050, whereas carbon value per hectare forest area is estimated at USD 2885 in 2020 and USD 2388 in 2050. If the BAU scenario of forest loss (converting forests to other land use) continues, the projected estimation of carbon stock and its economic value might fall until 2050 unless further initiatives on proper planning of forest management and ambitious policy implementation are taken. Instead, Malaysia’s CO2 emission growth started to fall after 2010 due to rising forest carbon sink of 282 million tons between 2011 and 2016, indicating a huge potential of Malaysian forests for future climate change mitigation. The estimated and projected value of carbon stock in Malaysian forest biomass, annual growth of forest carbon, forest carbon density and carbon sink would be useful for the better understanding of enhancing carbon sink by avoiding deforestation, sustainable forest management, forest conservation and protection, accurate reporting of national carbon inventories and policy-making decisions. The findings of this study could also be useful in meeting emission reduction targets and policy implementation related to climate change mitigation in Malaysia.

Inventory reporting of livestock emissions: the impact of the IPCC 1996 and 2006 Guidelines

The livestock sector is a major contributor to agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrogen (N) emissions and efforts are being made to reduce these emissions. National emission inventories are the main tool for reporting emissions. They have to be consistent, comparable, complete, accurate and transparent. The quality of emission inventories is affected by the reporting methodology, emission factors and knowledge of individual sources. In this paper, we investigate the effects of moving from the 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines on the emission estimates from the livestock sector. With Austria as a case study, we estimated the emissions according to the two guidelines, revealing marked changes in emission estimates from different source categories resulting from changes in the applied methodology. Overall estimated GHG emissions from the livestock sector decreased when applying the IPCC 2006 methodology, except for emissions from enteric fermentation. Our study revealed shifts in the relative importance of main emission sources. While the share of CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management increased, the share of N2O emissions from manure management and soils decreased. The most marked decrease was observed for the share of indirect N2O emissions. Our study reveals a strong relationship between the emission inventory methodology and mitigation options as mitigation measures will only be effective for meeting emission reduction targets if their effectiveness can be demonstrated in the national emission inventories. We include an outlook on the 2019 IPCC Refinement and its potential effects on livestock emissions estimates. Emission inventory reports are a potent tool to show the effect of mitigation measures and the methodology prescribed in inventory guidelines will have a distinct effect on the selection of mitigation measures.

Inclusion of forestry offsets in emission trading schemes: insights from global experts

Emissions trading schemes (ETSs) have been a central component of international climate change policies, as a carbon pricing tool to achieve emissions reduction targets. Forest carbon offset credits have been leveraged in many ETSs to efficiently meet emission reduction targets, yet there is little knowledge about the perceptions, experiences, and challenges associated with the forest carbon offsetting in existing and pilot ETS. Given that the future inclusion of forest carbon offset in ETS management activities and policies will require strong support and acceptability among the institutions and experts involved in ETS, this study explores the experiences and lessons learned with 16 globally engaging experts representing major existing ETSs (North America, Europe, and New Zealand) and Chinese pilot ETSs towards the inclusion of forestry offsets, major concerns and challenges with existing implementation models. Findings revealed that many respondents particularly from North America, New Zealand, and Chinese pilot systems portrayed positive attitudes toward the inclusion of forestry carbon offsets and its role in contributing to a viable ETS, while European experts were not supportive. Respondents cited leakage, permanence, additionality, and monitoring design features as the major challenges and concerns that inhibit the expansion and inclusion of forest carbon offsetting. Respondents from Chinese pilot schemes referenced a unique set of challenges related to implementation, including the increasing cost of afforestation and reforestation projects, the uncertainty in the future supply and demand for their national Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) scheme and landowner engagement. Existing and future ETSs should learn from and address the challenges experienced by global experts and carbon pricing mechanisms to design, evaluate, or enhance their forest carbon offset programs for an effective and viable system that successfully contributes to GHG mitigation practices globally. We recommend inclusion of forest carbon offsets at the early stages of ETS improves the perceptions and experience of policy makers and practitioners toward the success and potential of forestry offsets in ETS ensuring familiarity and confidence in the mechanism.